During his inaugural address on Monday, President Donald J. Trump again promised to launch American astronauts to Mars.
Seated nearby, Elon Musk, a political sympathizer of Mr. Trump who founded SpaceX in hopes of one day being able to send colonists to Mars, beamed with enthusiasm and offered two thumbs up. The giant Starship rocket that Mr Musk’s company is currently developing is designed for this task.
Mr. Trump left a number of specifics unsaid, including what the new initiative would mean for NASA’s existing moon program, when astronauts will reach Mars and what other NASA programs might be cut to paid for it.
What Trump said about Mars
Mr Trump has previously mentioned landing in March. During a campaign rally in Reading, Pa., on Oct. 9, he promised it would happen during his presidency. “We will lead the world in space and reach Mars before the end of my term,” he said.
He did not specify whether he wanted to land American astronauts on Mars by January 20, 2029, his last day in the White House, or whether it would be enough to just send a prototype spacecraft that would take astronauts to Mars someday. further into the future.
On Monday, he said US astronauts would “plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars”, but left out when.
Separately, Mr. Musk has not been shy in making his statements. In September, he said SpaceX would launch five Starships to Mars in 2026, albeit with none on board, to test their ability to survive re-entry through the thin Martian atmosphere and reach the surface alone.
Earth and Mars pass relatively close to each other once every 26 months; The next time they will be in line will be in late 2026. If those landers were successful, the first humans would travel next time, in 2028, Mr. Musk said.
Mr. Musk’s timeline is thus possible, at least in terms of orbital dynamics. But many other questions remain to be answered.
What happened to the moon?
Mr. Trump did not mention the moon, even though a major part of the space program during his first term was returning astronauts to the moon as part of NASA’s Artemis program. There are already signs that the new administration is planning major changes at Artemis.
One clue involves who runs NASA now.
During a change of presidential administrations, NASA’s top political appointees typically resign and a career official, the associate administrator, fills in until a new administrator is confirmed by the Senate. Mr Trump has nominated Jared Isaacman, a billionaire who has flown two private astronaut missions on SpaceX rockets and is a close associate of Mr Musk.
On Monday, Mr. Trump said Janet Petro, director of NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, would serve as acting administrator. In doing so, he bypassed James Free, the third most senior official at NASA.
Mr. Free has been a patron of the current Artemis program.
“Jim Free made it clear that Artemis was perfect and didn’t need to be changed,” said James Muncy, a Republican space policy consultant who was not involved in NASA’s transition to Mr. Trump. “This is disqualifying for a president who wants to change things.”
Key parts of the current Artemis program include the Space Launch System, a powerful but expensive NASA rocket, and the Orion capsule where astronauts would travel between Earth and the Moon.
Many in the space industry expect the incoming Trump administration to cancel SLS, and possibly Orion as well.
At Christmas, Mr. Musk wrote on X, “The Artemis architecture is extremely inefficient, as it is a program that maximizes jobs, not a program that maximizes results. Something completely new is needed.”
The next day, Mr Musk, who has met repeatedly with Mr Trump, appeared to call for skipping the moon altogether: “No, we’re going straight to Mars. The moon is a distraction.”
Mr. Musk downplayed the moon, even though SpaceX has a $4 billion contract to build a version of Starship to take astronauts from lunar orbit to the lunar surface.
A cancellation of Artemis would also cancel SpaceX’s contract.
“We’ll see if there’s no money for the moon at all in the budget when it comes out,” said Mr. Muncy, who said he would prefer NASA to continue the moon program using commercial alternatives to SLS.
Can American astronauts really reach Mars?
Mr. Musk has a long history of offering unrealistic and overly optimistic plans for his rocket developments. In 2016, he predicted that SpaceX’s first uncrewed missions to Mars would launch in 2022 and that astronauts would head there this year.
SpaceX has made technological advances, but they remain a long way from what is needed to launch a trip to Mars. Some of the most significant obstacles include the quick turnarounds between launches and the refueling of Starships during orbit.
The life support system on the Starship versions of Mr. Musk will also need to operate reliably — scavenging carbon dioxide from the air, recycling water and performing other tasks to keep the ship habitable — for more than a year.
If astronauts successfully landed on Mars, the return trip would require more as-yet-unproven technology.
First, the Starship would need to be fueled with methane and oxygen.
The technology to extract these gases from the Martian air is still largely hypothetical. SpaceX could send additional Starships with boosters for the return trip, but that would add complexity.
Then there is the question of who would pay for all this. These Mars flights will occur at a time when NASA would be busy with its Artemis moon missions, presumably with SpaceX fulfilling its contractual obligations to build a lunar lander.
At least on paper, it might make sense for Mr. Musk to have the Artemis moon missions canceled and for NASA to pay him to aim for Mars.
