The TikTok ban is likely to spread to US allies

Analysts have suggested it is “just a matter of time” until the US ban on TikTok spreads to allied countries and beyond – as long as the Trump administration goes ahead with it.

The app will be banned in America from Sunday after US lawmakers ruled it was a national security risk because of owner ByteDance’s ties to the Chinese government – links it denies.

President-elect Trump has indicated, however, that he is against the ban and will find a way to overturn it.

If the US ban goes ahead, experts point to the previous takedown of Chinese and Russian tech companies on national security grounds as a possible blueprint for how the ban on TikTok could spread around the world.

“There are huge parallels between TikTok and what happened with China’s Huawei and Russia’s Kaspersky that show it’s only a matter of time before a permanent ban takes effect,” says Emily Taylor, editor of the Cyber ​​Policy Journal.

In both cases, these companies were accused by the US of being a threat to national security – but no smoking gun was ever discovered by cyber security authorities.

The same thing happened with TikTok.

Under President Trump, Kaspersky’s flagship antivirus product was banned from civilian and military computers in the US after allegations emerged in 2017 that it was used by the Kremlin in a hacking incident that was never proven.

The United Kingdom followed almost immediately, and one by one the other allies fell into line with restrictions, warnings or bans.

It took years, but eventually a nationwide ban went into effect last year in the US, but by then it was redundant. Kaspersky closed its US operations, followed by its UK offices, saying it has no viable business there.

The company has always argued that the US government based its decision on “geopolitical climate and theoretical concerns” rather than independent verification of risk.

According to research by Bitsight The decline in Kaspersky use after the ban was announced, not only in the US, but also in at least 25 other countries, even those that have no overt public policy to ban the software.

Much the same thing happened with the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.

The US has accused Huawei and other Chinese tech firms of being too close to the Chinese government. He argued that the company’s popular 5G kit should not be used to build telecoms in case it could be used to spy or degrade communications.

A former Huawei staff member in the UK said that once the US decided to ban, block or restrict Huawei, it became almost inevitable that allies would follow.

“The UK and others talked about reaching their own security conclusions independently, but the US was relentless in its lobbying behind closed doors. They warned of national security risks that were never backed up with evidence,” said the former insider, who did not want to be named.

Intensive US lobbying of allies on security issues is often seen in many aspects of cyber policy.

It usually starts with countries in the Five Eyes Alliance.

The close intelligence-sharing agreement is between the five English-speaking democracies: the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

So far, all members have banned TikTok from government devices and some have also issued public warnings. Canada has ordered the end of TikTok’s Canadian operations citing national security concerns.

The effect of the Five Eyes crackdown could be significant, and restrictions have already spread with the app banned from the devices of government employees, civil servants or military personnel in countries such as Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Taiwan.

Ciaran Martin, who was head of the UK’s National Cyber ​​Security Center during the Huawei and Kaspersky bans, agrees that generally when the US makes a national security or strategic decision about a company, the UK and allies eventually follow suit.

However, as with everything to do with TikTok, he says there is a big caveat in the form of the incoming Trump administration.

“What we don’t know yet is whether TikTok will be an exception since Trump has said he’s against the ban, so will he order allies to repeat a ban? We don’t know yet.”

Trump’s position on TikTok has changed dramatically since his first presidency when he tried to ban it. He has since become an advocate as his re-election campaign gained support through TikTok videos.

Emily Taylor agrees that this unknown factor could make TikTok different from Huawei and Kaspersky.

“It depends on how much pressure the administration is willing to exert,” she told the BBC.

“If their foreign policy agenda is full, then forcing other allies to follow through on the ban may fall down the list and allow countries to wait it out.”

At the moment, there are “no plans” for a ban on TikTok in the UK, a government spokesman said on Saturday. “We engage with all the major social media companies to understand their plans to ensure data security in the UK and to ensure they meet the high standards of data protection and cyber security we expect .”

Another aspect to consider regarding TikTok’s upcoming post-US ban is whether the app can continue to thrive without a US customer base.

Any app that loses 170 million users would suffer, but US users in particular are valuable to creators, advertisers and direct spend on the TikTok Store.

If the rest of the West follows, it will reduce the money pouring into the company and limit the development of new features, further entrenching the dominance of American platforms such as Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and Snapchat.

TikTok is also already banned in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India – a massive market. It has no presence in China due to its sister app Douyin.

Kaspersky and Huawei managed to weather their storms by relying on home-grown customer bases and moving into regions like Africa and the Middle East.

So, it may be possible for TikTok to build its user bases here. But if the US ban creeps across the world, then the app will likely never be as big as it is now and may wither and die a slow death while current US officials further strengthen their dominance of theirs.