- The chief scientist at real estate firm CoreLogic lives in an area of LA affected by the Palisades fire.
- Howard Botts said he chose the location of his home carefully and added additional fire protection.
- He said his home is safe, but that big challenges lie ahead for his neighbors and other homeowners.
This essay is based on a conversation with Howard Botts, chief scientist and executive leader of CoreLogic’s science and analytics team, which studies the climate crisis and natural disaster risks. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
I live in the Rustic Canyon area of Pacific Palisades, a neighborhood in the city of Los Angeles – 20 miles west of downtown.
We’ve had community fires before, but usually, they go out pretty quickly. The recent fires are an anomaly.
On the day it all started, I saw smoke and fire at the top of the Santa Monica Mountains in the city. The wind was blowing at 30 to 50 miles per hour. which I knew was not good because the winds flow from the mountains to the ocean.
My wife and I began packing essentials, preparing to evacuate. We had no idea how quickly that fire would spread. Within hours, most of our city was engulfed in flames.
We were evacuated from our home, along with tens of thousands of residents from the Pacific Palisades and surrounding areas.
Last Thursday, I was able to hike Rustic Canyon. Miraculously, our house was undamaged, but there is a lot of ash, debris, and smoke damage that will need extensive cleanup. We may need to remove the drywall and insulation if deep cleaning doesn’t remove the fire smell.
Botts’ home after the Palisades fire. Courtesy of Howard Botts
I live on the south side of Sunset Boulevard, just below Will Rogers State Park. Almost all the houses on the north side of Sunset and above were burned – including Billy Crystal’s house and the historic Will Rogers house.
As you walk up the hill from where I live, in the main part of Palisades, it looks like the pictures you see of Hiroshima after the atomic bomb was dropped. Literally everything is gone except for some chimneys and metal stairs.
The residents of Palisades did not foresee the fires even though the area is of high risk
Pacific Palisades is uniquely situated between the Pacific Ocean and the Santa Monica Mountains, which rise nearly 1,000 feet above the city—just a few miles from the coast. The mountains offer beautiful views, but are also heavily covered with chaparral, making the area at high risk for wildfires.
I was very aware of this and avoided living in the hill area.
A question I get a lot is, “Why do people live in the Palisades, up on the hill?”
I think it’s a calculated risk. For some, the amenities of the area outweigh the perceived risk.
Homes in the neighborhood range from $3 million to $64 million, so people who live here have some level of wealth and probably feel safe. The area is also unique in that, even though it is part of downtown LA, it has a small-town feel.
I think all these things made people minimize the risk of fire. They thought that nothing like this would ever happen.
The Palisades fire was ignited for several reasons
You would never imagine an entire community burning down, but the fires were born out of a perfect storm of events.
The increase in average temperatures has put stress on the vegetation of the mountains that had not burned for 30 years.
Extremely high wind speeds also played a big role. Winds carried embers a mile away from the fire, fanning flames from the mountains and into flat, more urban areas. In those areas, homes, fences and vegetation were already burning well ahead of the fire front.
There were also man-made factors. Fire departments and responders ran out of water, so firefighting that would normally take place on the ground stopped for a period.
Fires in this area are also usually attacked from the air by airplanes and helicopters. However, those planes were grounded due to strong winds, preventing the use of fire retardants and other aerial suppression methods.
I have no plans to leave the Palisades, but I have taken steps to protect my home and family
I absolutely plan to continue living in the Palisades.
As a scientist and a fourth-generation Californian, fire danger is always at the forefront of my mind. I mitigated everything I could around my property, starting with installing double pane windows and a fireproof roof.
My house is anchored to rock, so my earthquake risk is relatively low. Plus, I live high enough above the Pacific Ocean that I don’t have to worry about sea level rise.
Botts Pool has some debris from the Palisades Fire. Courtesy of Howard Botts
Conversely, it will take a decade for my community to come back.
Many older homes are likely to contain asbestos or lead, requiring major remedial efforts, including the removal of soil and other materials. This will prevent people from coming back immediately.
Also, shops, banks, post offices and schools are all gone, so any sense of community closeness is lost.
It will take a long time before this area is restored – that will be the real challenge.
Insurance costs can affect whether people who lost their homes rebuild or relocate
Palisades is relatively wealthy. However, the areas affected by the Eaton fire have many more middle class residents.
I think the fires will change the character of those neighborhoods because the big question is, “Can the residents afford to rebuild at the cost it will take?”
Building codes have changed, so homes being rebuilt will have to meet the latest standards, including interior fire sprinklers and Class A fireproof roofs, which will increase materials and costs. .
Another question is, “Do residents have enough insurance coverage to make rebuilding possible?”
A structure burns in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles. AP Photo/Etienne Laurent
California definitely has an insurance problem right now.
In September, a major insurer did not renew my policy. The only fire insurance I could get was through the California FAIR Plan, the insurer of last resort. The total homeowners premium went from $2,800 a year to $12,800 a year for less coverage than I had before.
With higher insurance costs, some of my neighbors are considering moving to lower cost areas in other parts of California. I think we will see this play out nationally as well.
Over the next 30 years, we’re likely to see people move to regions they’ve historically left, such as cities around the Great Lakes—Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit—where the impacts of climate change are expected to be more moderate.
Californians will also have to adjust the way they build their homes
A key question is how places like California can stay safe as temperatures rise.
We’ll see more happening at the community level, where neighbors come together to clear vegetation around homes to reduce fire risk.
Additionally, there will be more pressure on individual homeowners to mitigate fire risk on their properties – such as avoiding wooden fences, decks and pergolas attached to homes.
We will also see insurers incentivize homeowners to make changes that reduce risk. For example, some neighbors were told they could lower their rates by removing pine or eucalyptus trees from their property.
Going forward, I think there will also be much greater investment in California’s public safety, including making sure there is an adequate water supply, firefighting equipment and other resources.
