What happens if TikTok is banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court agrees a last legal offer from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, to do so would be unconstitutional.

But even if the nation’s highest judicial authority agrees with lower courts — and Congress — that the platform is a threat to national security, will it stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways around the ban — or could President-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he says he opposes, even if the courts uphold it.

And whatever happens with TikTok, who will benefit from the uncertainty clouding its future?

The most likely way the US would ban TikTok is to order app stores, such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store, to make it unavailable for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already told tech firms to be ready to remove the app from their stores if a ban goes into effect.

This means that people can no longer use a legitimate means of accessing TikTok – although it will also mean that people who have taken it will still have it on their phones.

Because the app would no longer be publicly available, new updates could no longer be sent to users in the US — which would make the app noisier and, eventually, unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are provided to fix security holes in the apps, so if TikTok stopped receiving updates, it could present millions of devices to hackers to target.

Of course, there are ways to avoid such a ban.

There are already many videos circulating on TikTok informing users how to use a VPN (virtual private network) – a way to make it look like you’re in a different region.

The region of app stores can also be changed on most devices, so anyone can theoretically use apps from other countries—though this can cause other problems, not to mention potentially violating terms of service agreements.

It’s also possible to install apps downloaded from the Internet by modifying a device – which can violate copyright law – and comes with its own risks. However, the government has also anticipated this, so it is also proposing to ban “web hosting services” from giving people access to the app.

So if the ban takes this kind of form, it looks like those who are determined to use TikTok once it goes into effect will be able to do so — but it won’t be the experience they’re used to.

There are still other avenues available to the government down the road — for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to block access to the app entirely.

And even if people used a VPN, TikTok could theoretically look at a user’s device and identify if their mobile number starts with a +1, to tell if they’re located in the US, and then just present them them a screen saying the app is not available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government ban it – but it is being reported by Reuters that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s own lawyer told the Supreme Court that he believes the app will “go dark” in the US if it doesn’t rule in its favour.

The complexity of the issue means that even experts are unclear about what will happen next.

Georgia Institute of Technology Professor Milton L. Mueller — who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok — said the lack of clarity about how far the U.S. can extend its authority to enforce the law makes it clear what it technically happens if a ban continues. difficult to determine.

But he said what was clear was the impact it would have on users and the Internet itself.

“This would fully legitimize the fragmentation of the Internet across national or legal boundaries,” he said.

Trump has been clear he does not want the law to take effect, asking the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he seeks a “political solution.”

But if the justices uphold it, Trump does not have the power to overturn the law, which would take effect the day before he returns to office.

But he could just tell the Justice Department not to enforce it.

The government will effectively tell Apple and Google that they will not be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law will remain in place but will essentially be redundant.

Of course, firms might feel uncomfortable about breaking the law even if they’ve been told it’s okay—since it would in effect require them to take the president’s word for impunity.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US who, on average, spent 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.

Banning TikTok or making it less usable creates a huge opportunity for its big tech rivals, says Jasmine Enberg, analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Meta-owned Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most natural fit for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” she says.

Facebook could also benefit, although Ms Enberg says, along with all Meta platforms, controversial policy changes announced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg could potentially diminish its appeal.

Users bring in advertisers – so a ban could be a huge financial boost for those platforms.

“The marketing heads we spoke to confirmed that they will divert their media dollars to Meta and Google if they can no longer advertise on TikTok – this is the same behavior we saw in India when they banned TikTok in 2020 ” said Forrester. lead analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to go after a ban — but the law stipulates that it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the firm. This means that Lemon8 will probably also face becoming unavailable in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made a name for itself by hosting live streams — a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is particularly popular with gamers, although it continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese-owned platforms, such as Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote among its US users – have seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

However, some suggest that no existing app can truly replace TikTok, especially its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos and earns a lot of money for American creators.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there was no direct competitor that people could easily switch to – and notes that his agency was signing new contracts with clients to build TikTok Store campaigns by December.

Until now, ByteDance has been adamant that no sale of its prized US assets is on the table.

But could that change if it is actually banned — and when a president who prides himself on the “art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers continue to line up – with Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday However, the firm was eyeing a sale to billionaire Elon Musk TikTok has since outlined this as “pure fiction”.

Former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying it.

McCourt, a former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

There is an even more left-wing – and significantly less serious – proposed owner.

World’s Biggest YouTuber MrBeast has claimed that he is now in the race to make a deal as he had billionaires contact him about it.

Although it may seem like a joke, he has a significant financial incentive to try and save the app – MrBeast has more than 100 million followers on TikTok.