- Israel has used its Air Force to strike its enemies with impunity.
- The fall of Syria now gives it unprecedented air power, all the way to Iran’s border.
- “Israel now has open skies to Iran,” one Middle East analyst told BI.
The Israeli Air Force has long been considered the Middle East’s premier air fleet, supplied in large part with US-made aircraft and munitions. But in the past year it has gone further, showing that its aircraft can strike any of its adversaries with impunity and establishing unprecedented air superiority over vast stretches of the region.
It destroyed Russian and Iranian air defenses in Iran, emboldening Iranian leaders to retaliate with less protection. It destroyed Hezbollah’s missile arsenal stockpiles in southern Lebanon and killed its top leader with a precision airstrike on his underground headquarters.
Its power was so formidable in Syria that the Assad regime and Russia secretly asked Israel to spare Assad’s army, according to allegedly classified documents found in the country after the brutal regime fell in December.
In the wake of that collapse, Israel seized the opportunity. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) destroyed the vast majority of the country’s air defenses and Syrian military reserves.
Throughout the 15 months of war, fueled by the October 7, 2023 terrorist massacre by Hamas in Israel, the IAF has emerged supreme and is enjoying its moment.
“Fighter pilots, if they wished, could now happily fly in pairs, with visible operating systems, at any altitude, at any radius, at any point in Israel’s first defense circle,” reported the Israeli news site Ynet in end of December.
Israel has long possessed the most powerful air force in the Middle East and one of the most powerful and technologically advanced anywhere in the world. It boasts over 600 aircraft and over 30,000 active personnel, with no less than 50,000 in reserve. It operates the world’s second-largest fleet of F-16s and is the only regional country currently flying F-35 stealth jets. Moreover, Israel has its own version of this fifth-generation aircraft, a privilege that no other country enjoys.
The IAF consists mainly of American-made aircraft that also include Apache and Black Hawk helicopters. Israel also flies a large fleet of F-15s and recently signed a $5.2 billion deal for 25 highly advanced F-15IA variants.
The IAF plays a key role in Israel’s defense. It gave the small country a critical qualitative advantage over its larger Arab adversaries in historical conflicts, notably the Six Day War of June 1967.
The Israel Air Force flies numerous US-made aircraft such as the F-15E Strike Eagle. JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images
The IAF’s newfound supremacy goes beyond previous wars. For example, it previously destroyed several Soviet-built Syrian surface-to-air missile batteries in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley in a complex operation in 1982 and shot down over 80 Syrian warplanes without suffering any losses in return. While the December operation saw the IAF strike across Syria, the operation was not as sophisticated or dangerous as that historic episode; many of the air defenses in the last operation were abandoned or in a low state of readiness.
“We know that one reason for Israel’s restraint was a recently disclosed secret agreement with Russia and Syria in which Israel agreed to refrain from targeting the Syrian military more broadly,” said Sebastien Roblin, an aviation journalist. widely published military.
Israel launched a major long-range air and drone strike against Iran on the night of October 26 in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage against it on October 1. The IAF targeted several Syrian air defenses before the attack.
The IAF also used Iraqi airspace that October night and reportedly targeted radars and early warning sensors in both Syria and Iraq, which were part of a network Iran had set up in the region to detect future Israeli attacks. While the IAF used interdiction munitions, including air-launched ballistic missiles, several Israeli aircraft are believed to have penetrated Iranian airspace.
“From what we currently know, some Israeli aircraft are said to have violated Iranian airspace, although not, from what I’ve seen, very far,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at BI, told BI risk intelligence company RANE. .
“This was partly a demonstration of capability and partly an operational necessity to effectively strike deep targets,” Bohl said.
Israel stated that several aircraft entered Iranian airspace, which were likely Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth jets and newly discovered long-range drones. Roblin said it is unclear whether these planes dropped weapons on Iran. They could have been there to help “accurately locate key targets” and guide weapons fired by other aircraft over considerable distances.
“The attack certainly had the effect of erasing the deterrence benefits of Iran’s most advanced air defenses (the Russian S-300 systems),” Roblin said. However, as in the case of Syria before December, Iran’s remaining air defenses “still have some value in forcing the use of more expensive interdiction munitions and perhaps absorbing a percentage of incoming weapons.”
Israel’s campaign against the remnants of the Syrian army has major implications for Iran. If Syrian airspace remains open to Israeli aircraft, Israel can fly its tankers closer to Iranian airspace than previously possible.
“If the medium/high altitude air defenses were completely destroyed, then Israel’s normally vulnerable tanker planes could indeed theoretically enter Syrian airspace and refuel the fighters, which could enable higher volume strikes. big in Iran,” said Roblin.
With the elimination of Syrian air defenses, Bohl believes that “Israel now has open skies against Iran.”
It will likely take years before Syria manages to re-establish significant air defenses.
“The one-two punch of the fall of the Assad regime followed by Israeli attacks on surviving equipment means that Syria will need a much longer term to rebuild an air- and ground-based defense capability through acquisitions of expensive new equipment,” said Roblin. “So Israel’s ability to attack targets at will has improved, although it was already more than adequate.”
Air power, of course, has its limits. Israeli airstrikes have damaged roughly two-thirds of all buildings in Gaza, but it was a foot patrol that found and killed the hardline Hamas leader who orchestrated the 7/10 attacks. Similarly, waves of Israeli airstrikes have failed to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons and enriching uranium.
With Russia’s influence waning, Turkey seems destined to become the main military backer of the new Syria. Ankara has already offered Damascus help to rebuild the Syrian army.
“For now, Israel can ignore Syria as a protective layer for Iran; it’s just geography to fly now,” RANE’s Bohl said. “But this is unlikely to be a permanent condition and eventually, Syria’s air defenses will, in some way, return.”
“And if Turkey secures them, (it) could complicate Israel’s regional strategy in a new way.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes on Middle East developments, military affairs, politics and history. His articles have been published in a variety of regionally focused publications.
