Can direct air capture decarbonize aviation?

Can direct air capture decarbonize aviation?

With the devastating impacts of climate change like the recent fires in Los Angeles becoming more frequent, hard-to-cut industries like aviation are facing more pressure to reduce emissions. Airline executives now face a daunting challenge: how to keep up with the growing demand for air travel while minimizing their environmental impact. Traditional efficiency gains are approaching their limits, biofuel supply is not growing fast enough, and feedstock availability is limited. The aviation industry is frantically looking for scalable solutions. Enter direct air capture (DAC) technology, offering the potential to transform aviation by enabling both carbon neutral operations and synthetic fuel production.

The case for direct air capture in aviation

Aviation contributes approximately 4% of global anthropogenic climate warming, with two-thirds of its impact stemming from non-CO2 effects such as These condensation trails form when jets fly through cold air, creating a cloud-like blanket that traps heat in the atmosphere.

With sector growth projected at 2% per year, relying on conventional methods for decarbonisation is not enough. New technologies such as hydrogen jets and all-electric aircraft may one day eliminate direct emissions, but remain decades away from commercial viability for long-haul flights. Because of this, DAC has emerged as a leading contender in the race to decarbonize aviation.

DAC works by capturing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be permanently stored underground to offset emissions (carbon removal) or used to create synthetic fuels (carbon harnessing) when combined with green hydrogen. Unlike biofuels, DAC does not rely on large areas of land or water, nor is it limited by the supply of raw materials, making it a more sustainable solution in the long term.

Two roads, one goal: Climate neutrality

There are two main pathways for achieving climate neutral aviation using DAC by 2050:

1. Carbon removal: Under this model, airlines continue to use aircraft fossil fuels but offset their carbon emissions by investing in decarbonization projects or purchasing carbon credits. This approach uses DAC technology to capture CO2 emissions after they have entered the atmosphere.
2. Carbon utilization: This approach involves gradually replacing fossil jet fuels with synthetic fuels produced using CO2 captured from the atmosphere and green hydrogen. By burning cleaner, these fuels also reduce non-CO2 impacts such as contrail formation, significantly reducing aviation’s climate footprint.

Both avenues are gaining traction. In terms of carbon removal, Airbus has pre-purchased 400,000 carbon credits from 1PointFive’s DAC project in Texas, scheduled to come online later this year. Likewise, DAC competitor Climeworks recently secured carbon credit deals with SWISS and the Lufthansa Group. On the carbon front, Alaska Airlines joined startup Twelve, which aims to scale its CO2 technology in jet fuel, as an investor and customer in its latest $645 million funding round.

Each approach offers distinct benefits, and both will be crucial in decarbonizing aviation. While carbon removal is currently cheaper, synthetic fuels offer an advantage by burning cleaner and reducing contrail formation – an often overlooked contributor to global warming. A recent study published in Nature Communications pointed out that the future cost-effectiveness of carbon removal versus carbon use is highly dependent on renewable energy prices and fossil fuel market dynamics. If renewable electricity drops to 0.02 euros per kilowatt-hour (a very optimistic scenario) or fossil fuel prices rise to 0.9 euros per liter, synthetic fuels can become economically competitive.

Ultimately, a two-pronged approach—removing carbon to offset historical emissions and using carbon to lower future emissions—is essential to achieving true climate neutrality in aviation.

Consumer Impact: Will Flyers Pay More?

A burning question for industry executives is whether DAC-based solutions will increase ticket prices—and if so, by how much. of Nature Communications The study estimates that achieving CO2 neutrality through carbon removal would increase ticket prices by 30% to 40%, while achieving full climate neutrality through carbon use could increase prices by 40% to 60%. Despite these increases, projected price increases remain within the range of typical seasonal price fluctuations seen in today’s airline industry.

Interestingly, the increase per passenger for long-haul flights can range from 30 to 90 euros, a manageable price for many business travelers. On short lines, the cost increase is even lower, around €10 per passenger. With growing consumer awareness of climate issues, many customers may be willing to pay this price, especially if airlines clearly communicate the environmental benefits.

Many airlines offer the option to offset emissions at checkout, but these offsets are usually cheaper nature-based offsets, such as planting more trees. Airlines may soon start offering technology-based carbon offsets.

Is the direct air capture ready for takeoff?

For much of the aviation industry, DAC isn’t just a technology trend—it’s the potential solution they’ve been looking for to unlock sustainable aviation. Investing in direct air capture now means staking their claim as a pioneer in a rapidly changing landscape. The payoff is more than just ticking regulatory boxes — it’s also tapping into a growing wave of environmentally conscious travelers who are actively seeking greener options.

Here’s the key: early adopters get a double win. First, they shape the future of the industry. Second, they ride the wave of cost reduction as production scales and DAC technology becomes cheaper. As the technology matures, carbon removal and synthetic fuels may become as common as kerosene—without the environmental baggage.

Of course, there are challenges – costs, scalability and overcoming technology hurdles are not givens. But the upside is massive. With a smart mix of innovation, policy support and bold investment, DAC can rewrite the rules of aviation. It’s a chance to tackle one of the toughest climate challenges, turning it into a thriving business opportunity. Will the aviation sector be ready to lead the rise?

Disclaimer: I work at Deep skya Canadian carbon removal project developer.