What could happen if TikTok is banned in the US?

In a move that could reshape the American social media landscape, TikTok faces a possible ban in the United States on January 19 unless its Chinese parent company ByteDance sells the platform. The ban stems from a bipartisan law passed by Congress in April 2024 and signed by President Biden, giving ByteDance nine months to find a US-approved buyer or face shutdown.

Described by the US Department of Justice as “a national security threat of extraordinary depth and scale”, there are concerns that ByteDance could be forced to hand over US user data to the Chinese government – a claim that TikTok and ByteDance they firmly deny it. And while President-elect Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to delay the ban to seek a political solution after taking office, the stakes remain high for an app used by an estimated 170 million Americans each month.

From the technical implications for everyday users to the potentially seismic changes in social media power dynamics, the ripple effects of a ban could transform the way Americans create, consume and share digital content for years to come. Here’s why the ban is being proposed and how it will affect users.

Why can TikTok be banned?

At the heart of the TikTok controversy lie questions about data privacy and algorithmic content delivery. Like other major social platforms, TikTok uses user data to power its content recommendation system, and the extent and nature of its data collection practices have become a focal point in the debate over its future in the American market.

Government institutions around the world have already shown increasing caution towards TikTok, and concerns about its data practices have prompted action by major institutions. In 2023, both the British government and the European Commission moved to restrict the use of the app, banning it from employees’ devices. The BBC followed suit, instructing staff to remove TikTok from company phones citing security considerations.

From a business perspective, the stakes are high. TikTok’s US ad revenue is projected to reach $11.01 billion in 2024, and potential buyers are already emerging, including Frank McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who claims to have secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from investors. However, TikTok maintains that a sale is not feasible and that any potential sale would likely require approval from Chinese officials.

The potential ban on TikTok carries significant implications beyond US borders as well. India’s 2020 ban on TikTok provides a precedent — the app was just as popular there before it was outlawed. The effects of the ban rippled across India’s digital ecosystem, forcing rapid adaptation among content creators and users. Similar responses have been seen on a smaller scale in other regions – TikTok is currently blocked in many countries, including Iran, Nepal, Afghanistan and Somalia.

Will TikTok still work after being banned?

If implemented, the ban would create a cascading effect rather than an immediate shutdown. The most obvious impact would be the removal of TikTok from official app stores, given that the law would specifically prohibit the “distribution, maintenance or updating” of TikTok by any entity in the US. Companies that violate this ban could face fines of up to $5,000 per user — potentially amounting to $8.5 billion given TikTok’s current estimated user base in the US.

It’s also worth noting that the app itself won’t automatically disappear from users’ phones. Instead, existing users are likely to enter a period of gradual degradation as they lose access to critical updates and security patches. The app is expected to become unstable and potentially unsafe to use over time, as it becomes incompatible with newer versions of mobile operating systems.

New users who don’t already have the TikTok app installed on their devices at the time of the ban can also theoretically “upload” the app from unofficial sources if they own an Android device. However, this approach carries significant security risks, potentially exposing users to malicious software masquerading as TikTok. In addition, iPhone users would face even greater hurdles – they would have to jailbreak their devices, which is a complex process that voids warranties and creates ongoing technical challenges.

Users still using the TikTok app after a ban can also expect a degraded experience, as the app will be forced to rely on foreign servers, potentially resulting in slower performance for US users. However, the legislation does not appear to require internet service providers to block access to TikTok’s website, unlike China’s approach to blocking foreign services.

If TikTok is banned, what are the alternatives?

In the fast-paced world of social media, predicting winners and losers remains extremely challenging. Still, TikTok’s potential exit presents a fascinating case study in the dynamics of the digital platform, raising intriguing questions about how the social media landscape might be reconfigured next.

Meta’s Instagram Reels enters this moment with significant structural advantages. With over three billion users in its family of applications, Meta’s established ecosystem offers unparalleled reach. However, scale alone will not guarantee success. The real test will be whether Instagram can evolve its engagement mechanics to capture the addictive quality that made TikTok a cultural phenomenon.

Google’s YouTube Shorts approaches the challenge from a different angle. While Meta brings massive scale, YouTube’s deep experience in video optimization and creator monetization can be just as valuable. Its established relationships with music labels and robust content moderation infrastructure also position it well for the technical challenges ahead. However, the platform needs to prove it can translate these advantages into the rapid engagement that defined TikTok’s success.

Other competitors include Snapchat, which maintains a strong presence with 800 million monthly active users, and potentially newer platforms that could emerge to fill the void. However, replicating TikTok’s sophisticated recommendation algorithm and vibrant community of creators would present significant challenges for any platform.

Overall, the competition between these tech giants could catalyze the next wave of social media innovation. We could, for example, see accelerated development in key areas such as AI-driven content discovery, augmented reality features and new creator tools. The race to capture TikTok’s audience could spur significant investment in areas that have historically seen slower progress.

Another intriguing possibility, of course, is that no platform quite replicates TikTok’s magical formula. Instead of a simple transfer of users from one platform to another, we may witness the emergence of entirely new forms of digital social interaction, which will be an interesting development, to say the least.