Why Trump, GOP attacks on the IRA won’t mark a clean sweep in red states

The new Republican-majority Congress has wasted no time in making its energy priorities clear. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said from the podium minutes after his re-election, “We must stop the attacks on liquefied natural gas, pass legislation to eliminate the Green New Deal… We will fast-track new permits drilling. We’re going to save our automakers’ jobs, and we’re going to do it by ending the ridiculous EV mandates.”

Data from the auto industry tells a more complicated story. There is more investment in EVs and related battery technologies in states under the control of Republican governors than in states run by Democrats. The top 10 states for total investment in EV technology, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, are either red or swing states like Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada. Far from helping the automakers’ fortunes, Trump confidante Elon Musk says repealing EV incentives would be a pill he could swallow, even as Tesla CEO, because it would hurt even more other vehicle manufacturers.

Modifying or possibly repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s sweeping 2022 law that allocates about $369 billion over the next decade to clean energy and climate-related projects, has been a talking point for President elected Trump and many members of the GOP. . Not a single Republican voted in favor of the bill — saying its subsidies, tax credits, grants and loans are wasteful government overreach — and the party and Trump have been at odds ever since.

On the campaign trail this year, Trump said he would “repeal all unspent funds under the infamous Inflation Reduction Act.”

He and fellow Republicans have also talked about eliminating the $7,500 personal IRA federal tax credit for the purchase of a new electric vehicle, as well as various incentives for private companies that invest in the production of solar panels, wind turbines , EV batteries, heat pumps and other clean energy. products.

But in an interview with CNBC last fall, Speaker Johnson hinted at potential trouble for the GOP now that investments are made and job growth continues to pick up across Republican states. He said it would be impossible to “blow up” the IRA and would be unwise, as some aspects of the “terrible” legislation had helped the economy. “You have to use a scalpel, not a sledgehammer, because there are some provisions that have helped overall,” Johnson said.

The economic boost that the hundreds of IRA-funded projects have given the country, beyond just the EV industry, is mostly in red states — and the hundreds of thousands of clean energy jobs tied to the IRA as well as bipartisan Infrastructure Investments and The Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. A large portion of that workforce voted Republican in November, and jeopardizing their livelihoods could prompt a voting backlash.

“The IRA is the essential policy that can create jobs, spur economic growth and improve our economy,” said Bob Keefe, executive director of E2, a nonprofit environmental advocacy group that includes about 10,000 business leaders and investors, “while in At the same time, we have the means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

While the clean energy job market remains small compared to an overall U.S. job market of roughly 160 million Americans, it has become more than just a blip in the jobs picture. Data for the full year 2024 is not yet available, but according to E2’s Clean Jobs America 2024 report released in September, more than 149,000 clean energy jobs were created in 2023, accounting for 6.4% of jobs in economy-wide job creation and nearly 60% of total employment in the entire energy sector. Over the past three years, E2 reported, clean energy jobs grew by 14%, reaching nearly 3.5 million workers nationwide. “Our members and businesses across many sectors are very concerned about the potential for IRA repeal,” Keefe said.

In the two years since the IRA was passed, E2 has tracked private sector clean energy projects, including solar, wind, grid electrification, clean vehicles and EVs, and battery storage. To date, it has identified 358 major projects in 42 countries and investments of nearly $132 billion. More than 60% of announced projects—representing nearly 80% of investment and 70% of jobs—are located in Republican congressional districts.

In November, the Net Zero Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University published a study focused on the domestic and global impacts of interfering with Biden’s climate bills, specifically the IRA. “Our scenario analysis shows that U.S. repeal of the IRA would, in the most likely scenario, hurt U.S. manufacturing and trade and create up to $80 billion in investment opportunities for other countries, including major U.S. competitors such as China.” says the study. “U.S. damage would come in the form of lost factories, lost jobs, lost tax revenue and up to $50 billion in lost exports.”

The fallout from the IRA bust has not been lost on GOP lawmakers whose states and counties are benefiting from the law’s largesse. In August, 18 House Republicans sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson, urging him not to eliminate tax credits that have “created good jobs in many parts of the country — including many districts represented by members of our conference”.

Incidentally, one of the signatories, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon is Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Labor. Another, Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia has championed the eight clean energy projects, totaling $7.8 billion in investment and creating 7,222 jobs, that the IRA has brought to his district. And the small town of Dalton, Georgia, home to the largest solar panel manufacturing plant in the Western Hemisphere and the source of some 2,000 jobs, is in the district represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene, a vocal climate change skeptic. which nevertheless cheered the factory. .

In a survey of nearly 930 business stakeholders conducted in August by E2 and BW Research, more than half (53%) said they would lose business or income as a direct result of an IRA cancellation and 21% would have to lay off workers.

If Republicans fully repeal the IRA, which would require congressional approval, they would be “shooting themselves in the foot and hurting their constituents,” said Andrew Reagan, executive director of Clean Energy for America, an organization non-profit that advocates for clean energy. workforce. “You will see not only the cancellation of projects, but also the loss of jobs,” he said.

West Virginia Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, who will chair the Environment and Public Affairs Committee this year, spoke in a recent interview with Politico about a focus on bringing back elements of the IRA, including spending “immoral “, trying to keep parts that have created clean energy jobs. In her state, “some people have taken advantage of this tax break and are now employing 800 and 1,000 people,” Capito said, “and that’s what needs to be done.”

Union organizing in EV and battery plants

In addition to spurring new job growth, the IRA, the Infrastructure Act, and the CHIPS Act each have provisions that ensure that a significant portion of the jobs created go to union members or provide prevailing wages and benefits, internships and job training for non-union workers. So it’s no surprise that unions are also on the front lines of the battle to protect the bills.

Joining rates in clean energy have surpassed traditional energy employment for the first time, reaching 12.4%, according to a recent Department of Energy report. “This is a really big deal for us, and we want to continue to build on it,” said Samantha Smith, strategic adviser on clean energy jobs for the AFL-CIO, which represents more than 12.5 million U.S. workers in manufacturing, construction, mining and others. sectors. “We will work to make sure that every clean energy job and project with this federal funding can be a good union job,” she said. “That’s our focus as we look at this legislation and what Congress can do.”

The Laborers International Union of North America represents approximately 530,000 workers in the energy and construction industries. Executive Director Brent Booker noted that LIUNA members voted for both Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, but “neither voted to take away jobs.” And while it is “cautiously optimistic that the IRA will stay in place”, the union will “hold this administration accountable to make sure” it stays in place.

A recent report from the Center for Automotive Research outlines the critical workforce needed to meet the demand for EV batteries, which is expected to grow sixfold in the US by 2030. There is a significant skills gap in the battery industry, the report says. , which will require increased recruitment and training of workers – especially engineers, technicians and assemblers – for years to come.

This opens the way for unions to organize workers in battery manufacturing plants, many of which are joint ventures located in the so-called “battery belt” that stretches from Michigan to Georgia. In February of last year, the United Auto Workers pledged $40 million through 2026 in funding to support non-union auto and battery workers who are organizing across the country, and especially in the South.

“In the coming years, the electric vehicle battery industry is slated to add tens of thousands of jobs across the country,” the UAW said in the investment announcement. “These jobs will supplement and in some cases largely replace existing jobs in the auto industry. Through a new massive organizing effort, workers will fight to maintain and raise the bar in the evolving battery industry.”

Indeed, just this week, workers at Ford’s $6 billion BlueOval SK EV battery plant in Glendale, Kentucky, a joint venture with South Korea’s SK On, filed with the National Labor Relations Board to held a union election.

Clean Energy for America’s Reagan said he assumes Trump will be true to his America First platform: to strengthen U.S. manufacturing and supply chains, cut consumer energy bills in half by increasing domestic energy production and to reduce dependence on foreign trade, especially with China. “He can do none of these things if he repeals tax credits or tries to stifle American companies that are creating jobs,” Reagan said. “If he’s going to be successful, he can’t take an adversarial approach to a large part of our economy.”

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