Jakub Porzycki | Nurfoto | Getty Images
Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he worked as a Starbucks barista in Chicago and lives at home with his parents.Â
But after Nader, who is now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account exploded. With more than half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of advertising revenue that he quit his cafe gig and got his own apartment.
“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who said he makes between $1,000 and $12,000 a month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do for a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”
However, Nader’s new reality is far from stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is approaching a January 19 deadline by which it must sell or face a ban in the U.S. Like many other creators who have come to support on TikTok, Nader has urged his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them altogether and the significant revenue stream they represent.
“Not all of my TikTok followers are going to come here, and that’s really sad,” Nader said.Â
TikTok’s risk has been present for years, but increased in April after President Joe Biden signed a law requiring ByteDance to divest from the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, Apple AND Google will be bound by law to ensure that their platforms no longer support the app in the US
President-elect Donald Trump, who favored a ban on TikTok during his first administration, has since opposed the issue. Late last month, he asked the Supreme Court to step in and forcefully delay the implementation of Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political solution.” His inauguration is on January 20.
Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to change after he met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in ByteDance, who also owns a stake in the owner of Social TruthTrump’s social media company.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments from both sides on January 10. During the more than two-hour hearing, the judges questioned TikTok’s head lawyer about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument that the law violates the free speech rights of millions of users. her individual in the US
On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s online advocacy group, Project Liberty, announced it had submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it the “People’s Bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to exist on a US-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital security, though it did not disclose the terms of its bid.
Jack Nader, 21, from Chicago, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun moving his content from the Chinese-owned app to Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts.
Courtesy of Jack Nader
A decision may come at some point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what happens next.
He’s currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos every day to store them while he migrates his content to of Meta Instagram scrolls and Of the alphabet YouTube shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader reprocesses them, optimizing the clips for each application.Â
“It took me over a year and a half to build the following I have now on TikTok to make it my full-time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s about rebuilding the whole brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”
Nader said he is still not making money from Reels or Shorts.
‘This isn’t just a stupid app’
Danisha Carter, 27, is in a similar place. A resident of Los Angeles, Carter has been a full-time creator since 2021, posting social commentary and lifestyle videos. Although she knew about the TikTok ban for months, she said she had a wake-up call in the middle of the night in November.
“I have to start taking this seriously before I lose access to the platform I’ve built and the following I’ve built,” Carter said, recalling her panicked realization. “I shouldn’t waste any more time.”
Carter, who previously worked in luxury retail, ended her TikTok videos by telling her followers they can find her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon.
“This isn’t just some stupid app that people have been using to post dance videos,” said Carter, who earns an average of about $4,000 a month from her TikTok activity. “It’s been incredible in terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses.”
Danisha Carter, 27, from Los Angeles, is a full-time TikTok creator who started ending her videos by asking her fans to follow her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon before the 19 January banning the Chinese-owned app from taking effect.
Courtesy of Danisha Carter
TikTok may still find a way to stay operational in the US, but if the app is suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram are poised to be the biggest winners in the fallout, experts predict.
TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the US, far behind YouTube with 258 million and Facebook with 253 million, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Instagram has 131 million. Short videos, of the kind that mimic TikTok clips, are gaining traction across those apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram, Sensor Tower data shows.
While TikTok has a smaller US user base and a lower share of total ad dollars than its main rivals, it is the dominant platform for creators, especially those focused on short-form content.
Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in the US who fit that category, compared to about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.
Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spending on social media platforms in the US, according to Sensor Tower, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.
If TikTok goes away, “that equates to billions of dollars potentially up in the air for competitors to grab,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer estimates that Meta and YouTube could grab about half of the reallocated dollars if a ban goes into effect.
This kind of market change has happened elsewhere. India banned TikTok in June 2020, when the app had about 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India were up 20% while YouTube’s were up 11% year-on-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels usage ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of India’s ban. “If TikTok gets banned and creators have to scramble, between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, many creators are already hedging their bets.”
At Meta, executives within Instagram scheduled multiple impromptu meetings Friday after hearing oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. Although many inside the company had long expected TikTok to remain active in the U.S., executives at Instagram began directing their teams to prepare for a possible influx of users if the ban were to go through, said the person, who asked not to be named. due to confidentiality. .
(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, SC, holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and fellow content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, SC, stand outside the US Supreme Court building as a court. hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban on TikTok in the US on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.Â
Andrew Harnick | Getty Images
The need for diversification
Kristina Nolan, vice president of media services at marketing agency DMi Partners, said TikTok’s situation is the latest example of why social media creators must always diversify their following.
“We’re constantly reminding them to build audience depth on other platforms,” said Nolan, whose agency works with more than 50,000 creators.
In recent weeks, DMi has seen more of its creators begin migrating followers elsewhere in various ways, Nolan said. But they have to be careful. Nolan said some creators worry that TikTok will “shadow” them, or reduce their exposure to users, if the technology recognizes that they are promoting profiles elsewhere.
Some creators will suggest followers find them on fbook, for example, instead of typing Facebook. Others will put out just enough words to get the message out to their followers while hoping to avoid detection by TikTok, Nolan said. Some creators are teaming up with brands to incentivize users by holding prizes for users who follow them on other apps, she added.Â
“They’re definitely not saying ‘Come on Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They say: ‘Go follow me’ and they mean it.
After working on a horse farm, Nealie Boschma, 27, was able to move to Los Angeles and make a full-time living as a creator after starting to post videos on TikTok in 2022.
Courtesy of Nealie Boschma
Even with so many other options to find large audiences, creators are worried about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.
“Whatever’s going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nealie Boschma, 27, of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time maker since 2022. “It’s just like I have to look at it, so I don’t panic.”
Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma said she sees the possible ban as an opportunity to expand her career and become more creative.Â
Boschma started making TikTok videos after quitting her job working on a horse farm, choosing to live off her savings while experimenting creatively. Boschma’s bet on herself worked, and she won enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for her own place and a car.
Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban passes, Boschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.
It will be quite good, as she currently has 2 million followers on TikTok compared to only 278,000 on YouTube. But Boschma said she will try to make longer videos, something she’s always wanted to explore.
“Whether TikTok takes off or not, I think something will work,” Boschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”
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