- Donald Trump’s suggestion to increase NATO defense spending has divided European countries.
- Trump called on NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
- Many European NATO members have struggled to meet the current 2% defense spending target.
Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO members should allocate 5% of their GDP to defense has caused mixed reactions in Europe.
The president-elect released the figure — which is more than double the current target — at a press conference on Tuesday.
“I think NATO should have 5%,” he said. Everyone can afford it, but it should be at 5%, not 2%.
Currently, no member of the alliance spends 5% of GDP on defense.
NATO estimates showed that Poland was set to lead the alliance in defense spending as a percentage of GDP in 2024, with Warsaw investing more than 4% of its economic output in defence. Estonia and the USA followed, spending 3.43% and 3.38% respectively.
Trump’s remarks raised concern among some European officials.
Ralf Stegner, a member of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, wrote in a Facebook post that Trump’s comments were “delusional and truly insane.”
“Where should resources come from to solve real-world problems?” he said. “We have too much poverty, environmental destruction, civil wars, migration and too few resources to combat this more actively.”
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto cast doubt on the feasibility of Trump’s proposal: “I don’t think it will be five, which at this time would be impossible for almost all nations in the world, he said. according to the Italian news agency Ansa.
But Crosetto added that he expected the target to rise above 2%.
Italy was on track to spend 1.49% of GDP on defense in 2024, while Germany – which is preparing for a snap federal election in February – was set for 2.12%.
However, for countries closer to Russia and its ongoing occupation of Ukraine, increased defense spending may not seem like such a bad idea.
Warsaw has already signaled its support for Trump’s request, with the Polish defense minister telling the Financial Times that Poland “could be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe”.
In Estonia, the shared border with Russia has led to heightened tensions and a growing focus on defense.
Reacting to Trump’s comments, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Politico that it was “the message that Estonia has been defending for years.”
“This is a clear signal to Putin that he should not dare to test NATO’s nerves and that we are prepared for this,” he said.
At a meeting of Northern Group partners last year, Estonia’s defense minister urged allies to increase spending to 2.5% to counter the threat of Russian aggression.
Sweden, which has also increased defense spending since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, also backed the call for increased spending.
“There is a broad consensus in Sweden that we need to invest more in our defense,” the country’s foreign minister, Maria Malmer Stenergard, told Politico. “US governments have long urged European countries to increase their defense spending and to afford more of their own defense spending. We share that view.”
Lithuania is also prioritizing defense spending amid the growing Russian threat. Its president, Gitanas Nausėda, recently called on European countries to “show more support for the US global agenda” by increasing their share of the defense burden.
For his part, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said that Europe knows that it must spend more on defense.
During a trip to Warsaw in November, Rutte praised Poland for its defense spending efforts, saying it sent “a clear message not only to our adversaries, but also to the United States. That Europe understands that it must do more to ensure our common security. And that starts with spending more and also providing more skills.”
However, analysts say Trump’s 5% figure is unrealistic.
“Many European NATO countries are financing higher military spending through debt, cuts in other areas of spending and proposals to raise taxes,” said Nan Tian, a senior researcher and program director at the US Military Program. Arms Expenditure and Production of the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm. Business Insider. “These existing increases would push military spending to about half of Trump’s proposed 5% of GDP, so I don’t think that’s a realistic target.”
“The 5% level of GDP would be higher than the same countries spent at the height of the Cold War,” Tian added.
Ruther Deyermond, a senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, went further, calling Trump’s suggestion a “coercive tactic”.
“It seems like the intent of the 5% requirement is to make it unattainable—the intent seems to be that states will fail,” Deyermond wrote in X. “It’s a coercive tactic (pay or your country takes it) that also signals that NATO is no longer a meaningful alliance.”
