How influencers are preparing for a possible TikTok ban

New York
CNN
–

Joanne Molinaro’s life changed when she found TikTok.

She had worked her way up to partner at a major Chicago law firm after more than a decade of working in corporate litigation. And it almost crushed him.

“I was thinking to myself … lucky to have this job that pays my bills,” Molinaro said in an interview with CNN’s Terms of Service podcast. “And what if it tricks your soul and makes me want to curl up at night in the fetal position and cry? That’s okay because that’s what adults do.”

Like many people who were bored at home in the pandemic Spring 2020, Molinaro downloaded TikTok for fun. She mostly watched other people’s videos, although she also posted some of her own cooking videos. But then, one of her videos suddenly went viral.

A little over a year later, Molinaro retired from partnering at her firm to work full-time as the creator of TikTok. She has since built a brand around her profile, @TheKoreanVegan, publishing a cookbook with with the same name and amasses more than 3 million followers on TikTok and Instagram.

Molinaro is just one of many TikTok influencers now bracing for a possible ban on the app in the United States — and the loss of her six-figure income that could come with it.

A US law that could ban TikTok is set to take effect on January 19 unless the app is sold or the law is blocked by the Supreme Court.

On Friday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on TikTok’s legal challenge to the law, which the company claims violates its First Amendment rights and those of its 170 million American users. The US government has argued that the app poses a national security risk because its parent company, ByteDance, is based in China.

“TikTok collects a large amount of data on tens of millions of Americans, which (the People’s Republic of China) can use for espionage or blackmail,” the US Department of Justice stated in a legal filing with the Supreme Court. “And the PRC can secretly manipulate the platform to advance its geopolitical interests and harm the United States.”

The court looks set to uphold the law and allow the ban to go into effect, with the liberal and conservative justices directing a series of tough and skeptical questions at lawyers for TikTok and the app’s users. Several top justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, were concerned about the potential national security concerns two presidents have raised about the platform. Historically, the court has deferred to other branches of government on matters of national security.

“Should we ignore the fact that the ultimate parent (of TikTok) is, in fact, subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government?” said Roberts.

And during more than two hours of arguments, many of the justices appeared to view the sell-or-ban law not primarily as a law with First Amendment implications, but rather as an attempt to regulate foreign control of popular apps .

But TikTok’s lawyer, Noel Francisco, has repeatedly argued that the law violates his free speech rights and that splitting TikTok’s US presence from ByteDance is an unreasonable solution.

“Each new TikTok would be a fundamentally different platform with different content, which is another reason why I think this is a content-based restriction that falls squarely on TikTok,” Francisco said.

many TikTok users aren’t worried about the Chinese government, at least if the revenue they generate is any indication.

According to TikTok’s own estimate, the 7 million American small businesses that use the app station to lose $1 billion in revenue and about 2 million creators would suffer $300 million in lost revenue in just one month if the app is banned.

“Banning TikTok would be absolutely catastrophic for creators and the small businesses that rely on it,” said Jess Maddox, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama who researches social media and internet culture. “I’ve spent my career talking to creators and influencers, they’re resilient, they’re going to move, but it’s going to be a struggle in the meantime and it’s going to hit them financially.”

TikTok’s popularity skyrocketed in 2020 thanks in part to its unique algorithm, which prioritizes showing users entertaining content whether or not it’s from an account they follow. It was different from the sources of the old major platforms, which had they are mainly based on the strengthening of existing social ties. Users flocked to the app, as did creators, who found it much easier to quickly build an audience and find success almost overnight if they correctly predicted what the algorithm would want.

That’s what happened to Eli Rallo, who downloaded the app in 2020 as a college senior stuck at home due to Covid-19.

“I messed with my brothers one night… in our kitchen. And I made a video of filling a food jar with trail mix and put music behind it. It was kind of random, very Gen Z humorous,” Rallo told CNN. “And the next day it had like 200,000 views. I was shocked. And then I just started making videos from there.”

Social media has been Rallo’s full-time job since October 2021; she now has more than 1 million followers on TikTok and Instagram and is in the process of writing her second book.

“My career simply wouldn’t be where it is today without TikTok,” she said.

Rallo says that now she paints regularly five-figure deals with brands to promote their products on TikTok. It is part of the “creative economy” that Goldman Sachs has estimated could be $480 billion by 2027.

But she’s worried that could change if the app is banned.

“I am very worried, if i’m honest, about what would happen because I think my financial situation would change,” she said. “I’m very fortunate to make money from my books, and I’m very lucky to monetize brands on Instagram. I think we’ll see an increase in deals on Instagram, but TikTok money is definitely the biggest part of my income.”

Molinaro said she is already seeing the financial impact of a potential ban, starting in April when President Joe Biden signed the sell-or-ban law. In 2024, Molinaro estimates that she received 30% less money from sponsors.

“Those brands are not willing to spend dollars right now because they are terrified. “Oh, why would I spend money on a campaign that will fall on its face in a few days?” she said. “It has directly affected me, and I’m sure it has affected many influencers.”

A ban on TikTok could boost competitors like YouTube, Facebook and Instagram.

But for people who earn their income on TikTok, it can be difficult to switch to relying entirely on those other platforms.

It can take time to build a following on other apps big enough to attract big sponsorships, like their TikTok followers can follow them or not. And other platforms’ algorithms often prioritize different things—perhaps longer videos or certain types of music—and it can take time for people to adjust their strategies.

“It is not the same technology. It is not the same type of user. It’s not the same culture,” Maddox said.

And a ban could have ripple effects beyond individuals on TikTok. Very influential hire teams to support their careers, such as agents, accountants and lawyers to review brand deals.

“A lot of people think, oh, a TikTok ban will mean that these glamorous, frivolous influencers will have to get real jobs,” Maddox said. “Yes, it’s the top 1% who make a lot of money and live a very glamorous lifestyle. But the reality is that the people who will be hurt the most by a TikTok ban are those established middle-class Americans who are using it for information, for entertainment, to grow their business, their followers, and their community.”

For now, Rallo and Molinaro say they’re working to diversify their businesses and grow their following elsewhere, including other social platforms or email newsletters.

“Social media, someone once described to me, is like building real estate on sand. You never know,” said Molinaro.

— CNN’s John Fritze contributed to this report.