We’re a week into 2025, and Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have gone full MAGA and parts of Los Angeles are burning.
Like the world at large, the music business appears to be at an inflection point, its dominant subscription streaming business model challenged by its own success. As growth slows in the US and Europe, labels and artists must contend with an avalanche of new music, disruption from distribution startups and a possible ban on TikTok in the US. that computers can write songs about a dark future in which computers write songs about a dark future.
On a lighter note, here are my predictions for the coming year: the good, the bad, the ugly — and the edgy.
TikTok’s time won’t end – but the problem won’t go away
The case against TikTok is narrower than many assume – the US has always restricted foreign ownership of some media (which is why Sony is the only company that owned a movie studio but not a TV network). But at a time when both political parties need to show they care about young people, the availability of TikTok is a tempting problem to solve. So it’s easy to imagine a compromise — one that will last if tensions don’t rise with China and the mysterious popular videos portray Taiwan as a breakaway province.
Catalogs will continue to sell – but it will be clear that some are overpriced
The market for publishing catalogs and other rights depends mainly on the economy, but demographics also matter. Baby Boomer performers and songwriters are at an age when they are doing estate planning, and since many of them have led complicated personal lives, it is often easier to sell assets than to divide them. This, and increased streaming, will keep the market stable overall. But it turns out that at least some of these purchases weren’t worth the price. Each market only has so many blue chip assets.
The Trump administration will settle the federal antitrust case against Live Nation — but some states won’t budge
President Joe BidenThe administration made antitrust a priority, and the Justice Department’s case against Live Nation symbolized its ambition. (The case is complicated.) Most Republicans despise antitrust enforcement and the vice president-elect JD Vance seems to favor him, but Trump’s continued desire for visible victories on popular issues will tempt him to settle and declare victory. States that joined the Justice Department’s case may disagree, however, and they may continue to pressure the company in other ways.
This will be the winter of our discontent – but it will not last
Some fights only have winners. Combined, the six songs at the center of the rap battle between Kendrick Lamar and Drake generated nearly $15.4 million in streaming, digital sales and publishing revenue through the end of November, according to a Billboard assessment based on Luminate data. It’s no surprise that Drake’s freestyle “Fighting Irish” made a brief appearance on January 3rd. Expect a few more lyrical salvos, one or two of which might do the trick. After that, hip-hop fans will continue.
More mergers are coming – at high prices
The Trump administration may move to limit market concentration in technology and some sectors of the media business, but the recorded music business will not be a priority. If European regulators approve Universal Music Group’s acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings, another group of labels will buy another distributor. However, at what cost? Companies, like catalogs, are selling for high multiples – especially distributors, who are strategically important to maintain market share and ensure access to talent. How much is too much? We will soon find out.
Concert ticket prices will continue to rise — as Live Nation takes the blame and the money
As my colleague Dave Brooks points out, some concertgoers have been in shock longer than others have been alive, yet they continue to pay top dollar to see their favorite artists. Prices will increase more for big shows, fueled by FOMO and the ability to tell everyone you were there on social media. Live Nation will take the blame and make more money, even though the prices are more about supply and demand – there are only so many tickets to go.
“Streaming 2.0” is about to begin – and we will understand what it means
Subscription streaming saved the recorded music business, but its flaws are starting to show. Online platforms are full of AI elevator music and sped-up versions of existing songs. Meanwhile, the rights holders are demanding an increase in the price. The solution, according to UMG, is “Streaming 2.0,” a concept introduced at UMG’s Capital Markets Day presentation and mentioned again in the company’s announcement of the new deal with Amazon Music. The basic idea is price segmentation, to increase ARPU by offering more value to superfans. This is the year we get some details.
Streaming services will set themselves apart from rivals — at least a little
The tiered pricing model implied by Streaming 2.0 means that online platforms can be incentivized to offer additional content or features to superfans. Exclusives died in 2016, when the industry’s focus was on growing subscribers. Now some of them have to pay more. Imagine additional tracks, like those going to major retailers, or behind-the-scenes videos — content that’s worth something to a relatively small number of superfans, but won’t hold the interest of casual fans.
Emerging markets will continue to emerge – but they will remain so for some time
As streaming growth slows in the US and Europe, all eyes are on emerging markets – countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East. The growth is impressive and the excitement is palpable, but some of these markets account for so little revenue that it will take some time for them to matter as much as people expect. For the next decade, most of them will bring in less revenue than vinyl records in the US
At least one big star will join Trump — and many fans won’t care
As Trump prepares to take office, the resistance is losing its grip — especially in the media business. CEO of the Walt Disney Company Bob Iger signed ABC affiliate deal with Trump and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the company would prioritize free speech, in a way that looks like he kissed Trump’s ring. Before 2026, at least one major pop star will follow, either out of genuine enthusiasm or simply because it’s easier. The expected anger will not materialize.
