Hostile drones and friendly fire causing mayhem

Three very different stories from the past week highlighted the same issue: in the Red Sea, rescuers found the aircrew from a downed US Navy F/A-18; a passenger plane crashes in Kazakhstan, killing 38; Officials warn of a threat to civil aviation in New Jersey. The common thread that connects these different stories is the problem of distinguishing friendly aircraft from hostile drones and the risk of shooting down your aircraft by mistake.

The challenge, known as ‘deconflict’ and which previously received little consideration, is beginning to have a significant impact in the real world.

Accidents in the Red Sea

In the most direct incident, US Central Command described the downing of the F/A-18 as an ‘apparent friendly fire incident’. The plane, which had just taken off from the carrier USS Harry Truman, was shot down by the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, one of Truman’s escorts.

Shortly before this incident, the same group of ships had been attacked by Houthi drones and at least one cruise missile, which they had shot down.

Strict protocols requiring target confirmation usually prevent this type of incident from occurring, but it is not an isolated event. Further reports that a second F/A-18 was targeted and forced to take evasive action when the Gettysburg fired an SM-2 missile at it. The sharp maneuver meant the 1,500-pound supersonic missile missed by about 100 feet (30 meters), narrowly avoiding disaster.

Flight operations by Harry Truman were reportedly suspended while the cause of the incidents was investigated. Distinguishing a piloted aircraft with twin jet engines from a small drone may seem simple, but these incidents show how easily mistakes can be made.

While thankfully no lives were lost here, the destruction of a $60 million airliner and, perhaps more seriously, the forced suspension of flight operations by a carrier group, show that repeated attacks by small, inexpensive drones have serious unintended consequences. . Even if the drones are shot down, they can still manage to disrupt their target.

Panther Strike

Meanwhile, an investigation is underway into the loss of Azerbaijani flight JS-8432. According to Azerbaijani officials quoted by Reuters, the Embraer jet was hit by a Russian Pantsir (“Panther”) S-1 air defense system over Grozny before it crashed. Kremlin officials say they cannot comment until a full investigation is conducted.

Friendly fire has been a known and chronic problem for Russian aviation. Earlier this month, Russian defenders shot down one of their Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters. In October, one Su-25 attack jet shot down another, while earlier in the year a Russian missile crew in Crimea shot down one of their Su-27 jets. These are far from the only cases.

The defenders are likely mistaking the aircraft for Ukrainian one-way attack drones, which have scored a number of successes against Russian air bases, refineries and other targets. The videos show the drones calmly hovering over targets and crashing into them as gunfire crackles around, showing that many of Russia’s long-range, radar-guided missile systems have failed to hit them. The pressure is on for Russian air defenses to shoot down more drones – but launching more missiles will result in more friendly fire incidents unless the underlying problems can be resolved.

This morning Russia closed five airports for ‘operational security reasons’ following a Ukrainian drone strike. One of the five was Grozny, where JS-8432 was reportedly targeted. The action aims to prevent the recurrence of this incident.

While there is no suggestion yet that the Ukrainian drones are mimicking airliners, some Russian drones are equipped with radar reflectors to make them look like larger aircraft and cause confusion. Transponders and other methods used to identify aircraft can be copied by bad actors to help drones get through.

The drone that killed three US soldiers in Jordan last January reportedly evaded defenses by following the same flight path as a US aircraft minutes earlier. When airspace is divided between friendly and hostile aircraft, deconfliction becomes more difficult and chaos favors the attackers.

Confusion in New Jersey

The situation in New Jersey is more complex. Initial reports of large numbers of unidentified drones in the area have been clouded by an avalanche of competing claims that these are actually sightings of legitimate commercial drones, or of satellites or civilian aircraft. Others suggest that the drones are operated by mysterious government agencies, or even that aliens are flying them. The sightings have caused concern all the way up to the White House, and assurances that there is nothing to worry about have cut some ice.

President-elect Trump suggested on Social Truth that if the government can’t positively confirm the identity of the drones, they should “shoot them down!!!” Others, including local politicians, have expressed frustration at the lack of action and that what could be reconnaissance drones from hostile powers are being allowed to fly freely over New Jersey airspace.

The ‘mysterious drone’ issue goes after some time. In 2020 we reported repeated incursions by large numbers of drones on US nuclear power plants and similar drone sightings were made of US naval exercises and air bases. The scale of the operations, and the size and capability of some of the drones involved, strongly suggest that this is not simply a matter of hobbyists seeing what they can get away with.

‘Shine them’ may seem like an attractive option. But the challenge of identification and the risk of friendly fire, as seen in the Red Sea and Grozny, show that it comes with significant risks. And the problem will only get worse.

Ukraine is ramping up production, with plans to launch around 30,000 long-range attack drones next year. Others are likely to copy their success. Unlike other military equipment such as hypersonic missiles, such drones can be built by small teams in little more than garage workshops and can have a range of thousands of miles.

The solution, comprehensive radar coverage and advanced air traffic control systems to detect, track, identify and tag everything in the sky, may seem simple enough. But as events in New Jersey show, drones are elusive and can continue to slip through the net. And as Flight JS-8432 shows, any mistake in trying to land them is likely to cost lives.